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  • Sales Forecasting 101 for MedTech Startups 

    Sales Forecasting 101 for MedTech Startups 

    Building a Predictable Revenue Engine from the Ground Up 

    Executive Summary 

    For MedTech startups navigating the complexities of commercialization, an accurate sales forecast is not just a numbers game; it’s a strategic imperative. Sales forecasts fuel investor confidence, inform staffing decisions, shape marketing strategies, and ultimately, dictate the pace of market entry. This whitepaper offers a structured approach to sales forecasting tailored to emerging medical technology companies, focusing on the key drivers, decision points, and process dynamics that shape successful go-to-market plans. 

    1. Start with the Right Questions 

    Before you input a single number into a model, consider the following foundational questions: 

    Who are your target customers—new vs. existing, clinics vs. health systems?
    Estimate annual revenue per customer using baseline pricing, order frequency, and contract terms.
    What’s your expected ramp-up period? Revenue doesn’t start on Day 1 — forecast gradual adoption. 
    How long is your sales cycle? Factor in the delay from campaign launch to first purchase. 
    How efficient is your team at converting? Yield follows execution.

    2. The Process Yield Funnel: Define Your Commercial Steps 

    The model in your spreadsheet uses a Yield-Based Sales Funnel that breaks down the customer acquisition process into conversion stages. This gives startups clarity on where pipeline attrition happens — and how much activity is required to hit revenue targets. 

    Sample Funnel for Existing Customers (Upsell): 

    Step Description Example Yield 
    Campaign Target Total contacts engaged 100% 
    Decision Maker Reached Contacts reached 60% 
    Opportunity Identified Qualified interest 50% 
    Product Demo Engaged leads 75% 
    Sale  Closed deals30% 


    This example results in a 6.75% overall conversion rate (0.6 × 0.5 × 0.75 × 0.3), meaning you’ll need to start with ~15 prospects for every sale

    What If You Don’t Have Benchmarks? 

    Many MedTech startups lack historical data early on. In this case, apply the 10:3:1 Rule: 
     
    * For every 10 people you talk to, 3 will be interested, and 1 will buy. 
     
    This rule of thumb is a reliable proxy to model early activity until actual conversion metrics emerge. It equates to a 10% close rate on total outreach. 

    Application Example: 

    If your goal is 100 new customers, then: 

    You’ll need 300 qualified leads (expressed interest) 
    Which means reaching out to 1,000 prospects

    Use this rule to estimate:

    How many prospects you need in your CRM
    How many outreach messages or calls does your team execute 
    How much staffing and tooling is needed to support your top-of-funnel volume 


    3. Account for Ramp-Up: Reality vs. Optimism 

    One of the most overlooked aspects in startup sales forecasts is the time lag between launch and scale. Your model smartly includes:

    Ramp-up percentages per month (e.g., 2%, 4%, … up to 12%) 
    Cumulative customer adds 
    Corresponding monthly revenue growth 


    This reflects real-world adoption patterns, particularly in healthcare, where provider trust, procurement cycles, and clinical validation all cause friction. 

    Recommendation: Use a conservative ramp profile, and validate with similar MedTech analogs if possible. Over-forecasting Month 1 revenue is a rookie mistake. 

    4. Understand Revenue Sources 


    MedTech companies typically derive revenue from: 

    Baseline Revenue: Pre-existing customer base
    New Customer Acquisition: Fresh accounts converted from cold outreach 
    Upsell/Cross-Sell: Expanding wallet share from current users 

    Your model includes average order value, monthly value per customer, and projected upsell impact (e.g., 10%). Use industry benchmarks but validate with pilot data or early customers when possible.

    5. Staffing and Capacity Assumptions 

    Your ability to reach, convert, and retain customers depends on team capacity. Use the following logic: 

    Rep Productivity: How many demos or sales calls per week? 
    Lead Coverage: Do you have enough SDRs to reach the entire campaign target? 
    CSM Load: Who manages existing accounts for upsell? 

    Pro Tip: Forecast sales and support team growth in sync with your revenue ramp. Overhiring too early kills runway. Underhiring bottlenecks growth. 

    6. KPIs to Track and Refine 

    Every forecast should come with a feedback loop: 

    Conversion rates at each funnel stage 
    Actual vs. forecasted new customers 
    List item
    Customer acquisition cost (CAC) 
    Revenue per rep and rep ramp time 
    Payback period on sales spend 


    Conclusion 

    Sales forecasting for MedTech startups is not just about math. It’s about thinking critically through your commercial assumptions, mapping the buyer journey, and designing a funnel that aligns with real market behavior. The included model offers a robust foundation, but your ongoing discipline in testing, learning, and adjusting is what will ultimately ensure success. 

    Kathryn Kellam

    June 22, 2025
    Healthcare Manufacturing, VSO
    Sales organization, Sales Strategy
  • Tariffs and the Healthcare Ripple Effect: What Manufacturers Must Know 

    Tariffs and the Healthcare Ripple Effect: What Manufacturers Must Know 

    Tariffs may seem like geopolitical headlines or economic policy levers, but they have immediate and measurable effects for healthcare manufacturers. From increasing costs on essential materials to forcing shifts in commercialization models, tariffs can dramatically alter go-to-market strategies. 

    At Connexio Health, we help medical device, pharmaceutical, diagnostic, and biotech innovators respond to disruption with agility. Here’s what healthcare manufacturers need to know—and do—when tariffs are in play. 

    The True Cost of Tariffs in Healthcare 

    Tariffs are government-imposed duties on imported goods. When these apply to materials used in healthcare products, such as electronic components, active pharmaceutical ingredients, or packaging supplies, they impact everything from unit economics to launch timelines. 

    A diagnostic manufacturer sourcing overseas electronic parts may face higher costs and delays. A pharmaceutical company reliant on foreign ingredients could see its supply chain destabilized. Even if a product is entirely U.S.-made, packaging, shipping,g and labeling components might still be tariff-affected. 

    These impacts extend beyond the supply chain. Increased costs may erode the margin or require price adjustments. For provider organizations under value-based care pressures, this can create friction, especially when outcomes, reimbursement, and budgets are under scrutiny. 

    The Commercial Model Under Pressure 

    Research from the Alexander Group shows how leading companies react to tariff-induced disruptions. According to their findings, 83 percent of affected firms permanently adjusted their commercial strategies. These changes include: 

    • Accelerated use of virtual sales and account management models 
    • Tighter account segmentation to focus on high-margin opportunities 
    • Investment in analytics to optimize territory planning and resource deployment 

    This shift isn’t temporary. As global instability, inflation, and tariff risk persist, manufacturers must design commercial models that flex and adapt. 

    Three Moves to Make Right Now 

    Whether your company is already feeling the impact of tariffs or simply planning for volatility, there are immediate steps you can take: 

    1. Audit Your Supply Chain 

    Map your current supplier base and assess exposure to tariff-related cost increases. Consider alternatives or backup sources that allow for faster pivots. 

    2. Rethink Pricing and Profitability 

    Work with your finance and sales leadership to review pricing models. Where are margins at risk? What are the thresholds your customer base will tolerate? Consider bundling, subscription models, or value-based pricing structures. 

    3. Reposition Your Sales Messaging 

    Equip your commercial teams with messaging that highlights product value, clinical outcomes, and economic benefit. With many providers operating under tighter budgets, clarity around total cost of ownership and ROI is critical. 

    The Connexio Health Advantage 

    At Connexio Health, we specialize in commercialization strategies that account for complexity. Whether you’re launching into a competitive space, navigating uncertain economic conditions, or realigning your sales force, we bring the insights and execution support you need to stay ahead. 

    Tariffs may be outside your control, but how you respond is not. Now is the time to assess, adapt, and accelerate. 

    To learn more about commercialization strategies that accelerate success, visit connexiohealth.com. 

    Kristen Fescoe

    May 13, 2025
    Distribution, Healthcare Manufacturing, Uncategorized
    Hot Topic, Manufacturers, Sales organization, Sales Strategy
  • A New Era of Flexibility in Healthcare Commercialization

    A New Era of Flexibility in Healthcare Commercialization

    In today’s dynamic healthcare landscape, flexibility is essential for successful commercialization. No-obligation contracts are transforming the industry by offering healthcare companies the ability to scale services without long-term commitments, providing agility in a rapidly changing market.

    What are Flexible Contracts?

    In today’s dynamic healthcare landscape, flexibility is essential for successful commercialization. Flexible contracts are transforming the industry by offering healthcare companies the ability to scale services without long-term commitments, providing agility in a rapidly changing market.


    Why Healthcare Needs Flexibility

    1. Scalability: Adjust services based on real-time needs.
    2. Cost Efficiency: Pay only for what’s necessary, avoiding overhead.
    3. Market Responsiveness: Pivot strategies as market demands shift.
    4. Minimized Risk: Disengage without penalties, reducing financial exposure.

    Connexio Health’s Flexible Solutions

    Connexio Health offers innovative commercialization support through flexible contracts. Our adaptable model, including fractional services, lets healthcare companies tap into expertise when needed, ensuring agility and cost savings.

    Explore how Connexio Health’s flexible contracts can help your business thrive. Contact us today!

    Kristen Fescoe

    October 25, 2024
    Connexio Health
    Healthcare marketing, Sales organization
  • 5 Keys to a Successful Healthcare Virtual Sales Organization

    5 Keys to a Successful Healthcare Virtual Sales Organization

    Finding the right balance for your Virtual Sales Organization to be successful in the healthcare field can be tricky. With the right mix of people and platforms, you can achieve successful outcomes in the virtual world. Our team has worked with healthcare companies in the medical device, diagnostic and pharmaceutical industries to build virtual sales organizations (VSO) for over 20 years as MMC Healthcare. We’ve built programs for many manufacturers looking for a lower cost of sale solution to reach their customers and prospects. Here are some of the key ingredients we’ve identified for a successful program.

    The Product

    They key to successfully selling a product in a virtual environment is to clearly define the value propositions for the product. Value may be from the perspective of the healthcare providers or the patient, and ideally both. Examples may be clinical advantages, economic improvement or ease of use of the product. Digging deeper may include inclusion on GPO contracts or availability through distribution.

    The Team

    While many sales reps have “gone virtual” in the COVID-19 Pandemic era, finding a team that thrives in this environment is critical. They key is to find individuals with the background necessary to sell, who simultaneously enjoy the benefits of working in a virtual environment. Finding sales representatives that have experience previously selling or have worked in the care setting we are calling on is a big advantage. Having an experience respiratory sales representative calling a respiratory therapist or a dental hygienist calling into dental practices adds credibility to open doors.

    Marketing

    Introducing new products to healthcare professionals can be a challenge if they are not familiar with the product or company. We have proven that virtual sales programs are more successful when HCPs are exposed to the product in three to four marketing channels, including phone, email, landing pages, ads, direct mail and virtual education.

    Technology & Data

    Developing a central data platform (CDP) that is tied to tools like Salesforce.com will allow you to manage and prioritize customers and prospects. Giving your team a well thought out target list to nurture is an essential piece of driving reach and frequency within your target audience. Companies like Definitive Healthcare, IQVIA and MedData are great partners to help you build your database. Coupling your database with dialing, response management, video technology and scheduling tools will improve the efficiencies of your VSO. With the right tools, our VSO teams conduct video in-services and present to value analysis committees as if they were right in the room.

    Collaboration

    Your VSO team should be viewed as part of your greater sales organization. Members of field sales and the VSO should feel like they are on the same team. While we all know there are times that someone needs to be in the hospital or healthcare facility, COVID-19 has proven that a virtual approach can help companies successfully service and support our customer’s needs. When field sales and your VSO work well in conjunction, that is where you will see your greatest results.

    Whether you are looking to partner with a full-service sales & marketing agency like Connexio Health or to build an internal VSO, make sure you have the right recipe for success.

    Kristen Fescoe

    May 14, 2023
    IFU, Marketing, Non-Personal Promotion, VSO, Whitespace
    Sales organization, Virtual sales, VSO
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